Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.106520 0.118749 0.131411 0.145470 0.160611 0.176397 0.194069
2024-10-20 0.086145 0.104037 0.123624 0.146522 0.172415 0.200651 0.233628
2024-10-27 0.071646 0.093063 0.117706 0.147821 0.183289 0.223395 0.271825
2024-11-03 0.065752 0.090747 0.120699 0.158617 0.204700 0.258259 0.324548
2024-11-10 0.056381 0.082775 0.115720 0.158889 0.212952 0.277416 0.359033
2024-11-17 0.049806 0.077385 0.113101 0.161342 0.223338 0.298886 0.396359
2024-11-24 0.043629 0.071689 0.109354 0.161716 0.230653 0.316350 0.428826
2024-12-01 0.041446 0.071197 0.112266 0.170641 0.248906 0.347656 0.478910
2024-12-08 0.039535 0.070811 0.115127 0.179404 0.267010 0.379020 0.529569
2024-12-15 0.035509 0.066791 0.112472 0.180273 0.274404 0.396538 0.562723
2024-12-22 0.030794 0.061165 0.107011 0.176767 0.275525 0.405656 0.584994
2024-12-29 0.029496 0.060861 0.109300 0.184253 0.291770 0.434897 0.633806
2025-01-05 0.027218 0.058890 0.109199 0.188654 0.304435 0.460451 0.679427
2025-01-12 0.024821 0.056485 0.108290 0.191849 0.315580 0.484364 0.723622
2025-01-19 0.022499 0.053940 0.106948 0.194270 0.325636 0.506999 0.766572
2025-01-26 0.022546 0.055762 0.112768 0.207839 0.352173 0.552815 0.841560
2025-02-02 0.020188 0.052721 0.110291 0.208334 0.359488 0.572040 0.880722
2025-02-09 0.018514 0.050801 0.109526 0.211400 0.370581 0.596654 0.927552
2025-02-16 0.016612 0.048153 0.107273 0.211888 0.377704 0.615682 0.966874
2025-02-23 0.016399 0.049062 0.111342 0.222786 0.400835 0.657855 1.038863
2025-03-02 0.016157 0.049868 0.115228 0.233453 0.423783 0.700059 1.111380
2025-03-09 0.014682 0.047696 0.113466 0.234511 0.431769 0.720625 1.153602
2025-03-16 0.012715 0.044082 0.108722 0.230251 0.431244 0.728702 1.178210